The short answer
Cherry blossom season in Japan starts when the weather agency says it has: the dates you read are declarations, not estimates. The agency calls first bloom when 5 or 6 flowers have opened on a single marked tree, and full bloom when 4 buds in 5 are open, 5 to 10 days later. Between the two the tree is still mostly green. The date in the news is first bloom; the photograph that made you want to come is full bloom.
The real windows, region by region
| Region | First blossom | Peak bloom | Autumn colors |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fukuoka (Kyushu) | March 22 | March 31 | December 1 |
| Kyoto / Osaka (Kansai) | March 26 | April 4 | December 1 to December 5 |
| Tokyo (Kanto) | March 24 | March 31 | November 28 |
| Sendai (Tohoku) | April 8 | April 13 | November 17 |
| Sapporo (Hokkaido) | May 1 | May 6 | October 28 |
1991-2020 averages. Last checked August 10, 2026. 気象庁 (Japan Meteorological Agency, JMA), 生物季節観測 (平年値 1991-2020): さくらの開花日・満開日 for cherry blossom, 生物季節観測累年表 かえでの紅葉 for koyo, the autumn colors.
These are historical averages, not this year’s forecast: the blossom one only comes out in January or February and keeps moving until the trees decide. Read a window of two to three weeks from it, never a single date. The figures are the weather agency’s 1991 to 2020 normals.
When cherry blossom season starts is a decision, not a date
Both declarations rest on one tree per station, a marked specimen that the same weather agency has watched for decades, and somebody physically goes and counts the flowers on it. First bloom, kaika, is 5 or 6 open flowers. Full bloom, mankai, is 4 buds in 5, and it lands 5 to 10 days later depending on the region.
The first bloom trap. Book around the first bloom date and you often turn up a week early, in front of trees that are still half green. The date that matters for the view is full bloom, and the gap is not a rounding error.
The trees are clones, which is why an avenue turns on one day
A city in bloom looks synchronized because the trees are the same tree. The variety under observation is somei-yoshino, propagated by grafting since the 19th century, so an avenue of them is genetically identical and reacts to the same temperature at the same hour. Two official exceptions explain the ends of the country. From Okinawa up to Naze the observed variety is hikanzakura, and part of Hokkaido follows ezoyamazakura, so the two extremes are not watching the same species at all.
Landing after the peak means changing variety, not going home
Somei-yoshino holds its peak for about ten days. Wind and rain included. Other varieties open 1 to 2 weeks after it, the double-flowered yaezakura among them, pinker and fuller than the classic one, so arriving late changes what you look at rather than whether you look at anything.
The maples run on cold nights, and take the same six weeks
The colors start in the north and at altitude, then work down toward the south and the lowlands. Cold is the trigger, not the calendar. Leaves need repeated cool nights before they stop making chlorophyll and let the reds and yellows through, and two consequences follow from that.
The mountain turns well before the city next to it. A few tens of kilometers can be worth weeks. The maple dates by region sit in the same table as the blossom ones. A mild autumn pushes the whole season back, sometimes by 10 days, exactly as a cold spring holds the blossom.
The two sweeps take the same time. Our published averages put October 28 in Sapporo to December 5 in Kyoto at 38 days, against 40 for March 22 to May 1 in spring. What genuinely differs is local: blossom holds about ten days in one place, color holds two to three, which is why an autumn trip forgives a date and a spring trip does not.
Tokyo turns before Kyoto, and the map says it should not
Tokyo blooms on average ahead of Kyoto and Osaka, which sit further south. The city’s own heat is enough to invert the geographic order, and the effect is large enough to see in a 30-year average rather than in one odd year. These dates are measurements of one spot, not a property of a latitude.
What you can do today
- Aim at full bloom, not first bloom. The 5 to 10 day gap between the two declarations is the difference between a green tree and the photograph.
- Take a window of 2 to 3 weeks from the region table, never a single date: the region table has the averages and the source.
- If your dates are fixed and late, go looking for late varieties rather than moving the trip. Yaezakura is a real answer, not a consolation.
- Book on the accommodation calendar, not on the bloom calendar. Rooms open around 6 months out, long before anyone knows this year’s dates: our guide on when sales open has the windows.
